Russian drone and missile strikes have killed at least eight civilians in Ukraine, while intelligence agencies warn of an increasing threat of Russian hybrid attacks across Europe. These developments highlight the widening scope of the conflict, raising concerns about civilian safety and the stability of regional infrastructure. Observers are now watching for how NATO members respond to these sabotage incidents and whether international diplomatic efforts at the G20 summit can address the ongoing humanitarian crisis.
5 stories say getting worse, 1 story says mixed
Reported by several outletsDeadline Jan 15, 2027
Will the UN General Assembly or G20 adopt a resolution or joint declaration formally condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine by 2027-01-15?
No moves yet. The odds change only when one of the events below is confirmed by at least two outlets or an official source.
These are possible future events Zoose is watching for, not news. None has happened unless it is marked Confirmed.
Started at 39% / 61% on Sep 25. Each event can fire once.
Odds move when a signpost is confirmed by the news.
New forecast: Will the UN General Assembly or G20 adopt a resolution or joint declaration formally condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine by 2027-01-15? Starting odds: Formal condemnation adopted 39%, No formal condemnation 61%.
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Ukraine
Officials say that Russian drone and missile attacks on Ukraine have killed at least eight civilians
Ukraine
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte says the alliance is capable of handling sabotage and drone incidents in Europe and has good action plans in place
Ukraine
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Ukraine has sent two North Korean prisoners of war to South Korea
Ukraine
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico says he fears war and will do everything he can to keep his country out of one. Critics say his remarks risk weakening NATO, the alliance that was designed to prevent such a war.
Ukraine
Russian President Vladimir Putin has been invited to the G20 summit in Miami by the United States. Multiple members of the group have called for Moscow's exclusion over its invasion of Ukraine.
Ukraine
Polish Deputy Prime Minister Krzysztof Gawkowski said Warsaw believed the attack aimed to disrupt internet access for the Ukrainian military, calling it "an element of the next phase of hybrid warfare."
Odds move when a signpost is confirmed by the news.
Ukraine
The US and NATO want Czechia to spend more on defense. Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis says Prague cannot afford faster increases, despite growing warnings about the threat from Russia.
Ukraine
Food supplies to the town of Oleshky, in the occupied part of the southern Kherson region, have been cut off since May. Efforts by Kyiv to negotiate the evacuation of civilians with Moscow have been largely unsuccessful.
Ukraine
A male suspect from Ukraine was arrested after the stabbings in the town of Jarosław, police say.
Ukraine
The satellite station is used in part to provide internet coverage to neighbouring Ukraine, the government says.
Ukraine
Poland says the aircraft stayed in its skies for 42 seconds, forcing the Nato member to scramble its fighter jets.
Ukraine
The BBC has spoken to residents in the Russian-occupied Ukrainian town of Oleshky who say they are being "constantly shelled".
Ukraine
Ukraine will get access to OpenAI's advanced GPT 5.6 Sol model under the deal - a rival to Anthropic's Mythos and Fable
Ukraine
Monthly ‘thank you’ payments for people hosting refugees to be cut from £350 to £100 from next yearUkrainian refugees in the UK fear they could be left homeless after the government quietly axed 70% of funding for hosts of the Homes for Ukraine scheme, reducing monthly “thank you” payments to them from £350 to £100.The
Ukraine
Warning comes hours after Poland says fire at Starlink satellite station was ‘act of sabotage’Russia could launch a limited military attack against a Nato country in the coming months, Danish intelligence said, in one of the starkest warnings yet by western security services.In a report published on Thursday, the Danis
Ukraine
If President Vladimir V. Putin was hoping to get Europeans’ attention, he’s succeeded with a series of close-call incursions. The question now is what they will do about it.
Ukraine
President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine said one soldier tried to kill himself when he was captured. “This is how they raise people in the North,” he said.
Our Ukraine correspondent Siobhán O’Grady visits a school in Kyiv where air raid sirens interrupt classes all day and children must take shelter.
Our business data correspondent Aaron Krolik describes Russia’s vast effort to evade global sanctions and get drone parts for its war in Ukraine — and explains how we traced those efforts.