Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the UN General Assembly, where he rejected genocide allegations as a "lie" and faced walkouts from delegates and protests outside the venue. This diplomatic friction highlights deepening international polarization and growing isolation regarding the conflict, which continues to impact regional stability and public sentiment. Observers are now watching for further diplomatic fallout and the ongoing military situation in both Gaza and the West Bank.
Will a formal, multi-phase ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas be implemented by 2027-01-15?
Ceasefire implemented 28%No formal ceasefire 72%
No moves yet. The odds change only when one of the events below is confirmed by at least two outlets or an official source.
What would move the odds
These are possible future events Zoose is watching for, not news. None has happened unless it is marked Confirmed.
Possible · not happened22% chance
Partial hostage-for-prisoner exchange completedIf it happens:↑ Ceasefire implemented↓ No formal ceasefire
Will it happen by Jan 15?
Possible · not happened15% chance
Israeli governing coalition loses majorityIf it happens:↑ Ceasefire implemented
Will it happen by Jan 15?
Possible · not happened12% chance
Israel announces withdrawal from Philadelphi CorridorIf it happens:↑ Ceasefire implemented↓ No formal ceasefire
Will it happen by Jan 15?
Possible · not happened8% chance
UNSC passes binding ceasefire enforcement resolutionIf it happens:↑ Ceasefire implemented↓ No formal ceasefire
Will it happen by Jan 15?
Started at 28% / 72% on Sep 25. Each event can fire once.
Make your forecast
Scenarios to Jan 15, 2027
Will a formal, multi-phase ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas be implemented by 2027-01-15?
Ceasefire implemented
28%
No formal ceasefire
72%
Odds move when a signpost is confirmed by the news.
Discussion
Ask @zoose anything about Gaza
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New forecast: Will a formal, multi-phase ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas be implemented by 2027-01-15? Starting odds: Ceasefire implemented 28%, No formal ceasefire 72%.