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Analysis

Global energy markets face ongoing volatility as Gulf nations navigate supply routes during the Iran war and the EU warns against potential US diesel export bans. These supply constraints and high production costs are impacting businesses and consumers through rising fuel prices and industrial production suspensions. Observers are now monitoring how these geopolitical tensions and shifting government policies, including new tax subsidies for fossil fuel firms, will influence energy security and costs heading into winter.

3 stories 3 outlets
Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the European Union report a diesel supply shortage or implement emergency rationing by January 15, 2027?
Supply remains stable 65%
Shortage or rationing reported 35%

Deadline Jan 15, 2027

Poll

Should your country produce more of its own oil and gas?

Poll

How should governments respond to high fuel prices?

How the odds moved

Will the European Union report a diesel supply shortage or implement emergency rationing by January 15, 2027?

Shortage or rationing reported 35%Supply remains stable 65%

No moves yet. The odds change only when one of the events below is confirmed by at least two outlets or an official source.

What would move the odds

These are possible future events Zoose is watching for, not news. None has happened unless it is marked Confirmed.

  • Possible · not happened 15% chance
    US enacts diesel export ban If it happens: ↑ Shortage or rationing reported ↓ Supply remains stable
    Will it happen by Jan 15?
  • Possible · not happened 22% chance
    German gas storage falls below 40% If it happens: ↑ Shortage or rationing reported ↓ Supply remains stable
    Will it happen by Jan 15?
  • Possible · not happened 12% chance
    Strait of Hormuz traffic disrupted If it happens: ↑ Shortage or rationing reported ↓ Supply remains stable
    Will it happen by Jan 15?
  • Possible · not happened 45% chance
    EU diesel inventories rise 10% If it happens: ↑ Supply remains stable ↓ Shortage or rationing reported
    Will it happen by Jan 15?

Started at 35% / 65% on Sep 25. Each event can fire once.

Make your forecast
Scenarios to Jan 15, 2027

Will the European Union report a diesel supply shortage or implement emergency rationing by January 15, 2027?

Shortage or rationing reported 35%
Supply remains stable 65%
Your call: 65%

Odds move when a signpost is confirmed by the news.

Discussion

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  1. New forecast: Will the European Union report a diesel supply shortage or implement emergency rationing by January 15, 2027? Starting odds: Shortage or rationing reported 35%, Supply remains stable 65%.

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