Economy

Interest rates and central banks

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Analysis

Bond yields have surged to multi-year highs as investors anticipate further interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve to combat persistent inflation. This trend is directly impacting consumers by pushing mortgage rates above 7% and threatening to increase costs for other loans like auto financing. Market observers are now closely watching upcoming Federal Reserve economic projections and policy statements to gauge the duration and severity of these higher borrowing costs.

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Early reports

Forecast

Will the Federal Reserve raise the federal funds target rate at or before the December 2026 FOMC meeting?
Target rate increases 58%
Target rate remains same or decreases 42%

Deadline Dec 17, 2026

Poll

Should central banks be more worried about inflation or jobs right now?

Poll

What should the central bank do at its next meeting?

How the odds moved

Will the Federal Reserve raise the federal funds target rate at or before the December 2026 FOMC meeting?

Target rate increases 58%Target rate remains same or decreases 42%

No moves yet. The odds change only when one of the events below is confirmed by at least two outlets or an official source.

What would move the odds

These are possible future events Zoose is watching for, not news. None has happened unless it is marked Confirmed.

  • Possible · not happened 45% chance
    October CPI exceeds 0.3% month-over-month If it happens: ↑ Target rate increases ↓ Target rate remains same or decreases
    Will it happen by Dec 17?
  • Possible · not happened 30% chance
    10-year Treasury yield hits 5.0% If it happens: ↓ Target rate remains same or decreases
    Will it happen by Dec 17?
  • Possible · not happened 25% chance
    Unemployment rate rises to 4.2% or higher If it happens: ↑ Target rate remains same or decreases ↓ Target rate increases
    Will it happen by Dec 17?
  • Possible · not happened 40% chance
    Fed raises rates in November If it happens: ↑ Target rate increases ↓ Target rate remains same or decreases
    Will it happen by Dec 17?

Started at 58% / 42% on Sep 25. Each event can fire once.

Make your forecast
Scenarios to Dec 17, 2026

Will the Federal Reserve raise the federal funds target rate at or before the December 2026 FOMC meeting?

Target rate increases 58%
Target rate remains same or decreases 42%
Your call: 65%

Odds move when a signpost is confirmed by the news.

Discussion

Ask @zoose anything about Rates

  1. New forecast: Will the Federal Reserve raise the federal funds target rate at or before the December 2026 FOMC meeting? Starting odds: Target rate increases 58%, Target rate remains same or decreases 42%.

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