Inflation and cost of living

How the odds moved

What will be the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the United States on January 15, 2027?

No moves yet. The odds change only when one of the events below is confirmed by at least two outlets or an official source.

What would move the odds

These are possible future events Zoose is watching for, not news. None has happened unless it is marked Confirmed.

• Possible · not happened 25% chance
  Federal Reserve raises target rate in November If it happens: ↑ Above 7.0% ↓ Between 6.0% and 7.0% ↓ Below 6.0%
  Will it happen by Jan 15? Likely Unlikely
• Possible · not happened 35% chance
  October CPI inflation exceeds 0.3% month-over-month If it happens: ↑ Above 7.0% ↓ Below 6.0%
  Will it happen by Jan 15? Likely Unlikely
• Possible · not happened 20% chance
  US unemployment rate reaches 4.5% or higher If it happens: ↑ Below 6.0% ↓ Above 7.0%
  Will it happen by Jan 15? Likely Unlikely
• Possible · not happened 30% chance
  10-year Treasury yield falls below 3.8% If it happens: ↑ Below 6.0% ↑ Between 6.0% and 7.0% ↓ Above 7.0%
  Will it happen by Jan 15? Likely Unlikely

Started at 37% / 43% / 21% on Sep 25. Each event can fire once.