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F Federal Reserve · Monetary policy· 4h

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

Analysis

Bond yields have surged to multi-year highs as investors anticipate further interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve to combat persistent inflation. This trend is directly impacting consumers by pushing mortgage rates above 7% and threatening to increase costs for other loans like auto financing. Market observers are now closely watching upcoming Federal Reserve economic projections and policy statements to gauge the duration and severity of these higher borrowing costs.

10 stories 10 outlets 3 primary sources

5 stories say getting worse

Well confirmed

Forecast

Will the Federal Reserve raise the federal funds target rate at or before the December 2026 FOMC meeting?
Target rate increases 58%
Target rate remains same or decreases 42%

Deadline Dec 17, 2026

Poll

Should central banks be more worried about inflation or jobs right now?

Poll

What should the central bank do at its next meeting?

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C CNBC· 4h

China's Xi urges U.S. to cooperate on AI

U.S. President Donald Trump hosted Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday at the White House.

Analysis

Global leaders and tech executives are increasingly debating the need for international AI oversight, highlighted by recent briefings to the UN Security Council and discussions between U.S. and Chinese leadership. These developments matter to the public as governments grapple with AI-driven security risks, potential data breaches like the incident in Australia, and the technology's influence on political polarization. Moving forward, observers are watching whether federal and international bodies can establish unified regulatory frameworks to address these safety and societal concerns.

7 stories 7 outlets

1 story says getting better

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Scenarios appear once enough evidence builds on this topic.

Poll

Should AI-generated images and video be required to carry a label?

Poll

How should governments regulate advanced AI?

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C CNBC· 4h

30-year fixed mortgage rate jumps sharply Thursday to 7.45%

The 30-year fixed rate surged to 7.45%, the highest level since April 2024 as bonds sold off and yields rose.

Analysis

1 development from 1 outlet in the past week. Recent evidence leans getting worse.

1 stories 1 outlets ↑ Getting worse

1 story says getting worse

Early reports

Forecast

What will the 30-year fixed mortgage rate be on January 15, 2027?
Between 7.0% and 8.0% 50%
Below 7.0% 27%
8.0% or higher 23%

Deadline Jan 15, 2027

Poll

Should local zoning rules be loosened to allow more apartments?

Poll

What would do most to make housing affordable?

Discuss Full coverage · 14 →
P Politico· 4h

Sen. Jon Husted: Iran war ‘needs to come to an end as quickly as possible’

His comments follow Senate candidates Ashley Hinson and Mike Rogers breaking from Trump on the conflict, as GOP panic grows over high prices.

Analysis

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has stated that Tehran is open to ending the conflict, while the U.S. Senate recently voted down a resolution to withdraw from the war. As U.S. sanctions disrupt Iranian aviation and trade, regional tensions are escalating with new Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and increased humanitarian displacement in Yemen. Observers are now watching for potential shifts in U.S. policy ahead of the midterm elections and whether diplomatic pressure will impact the ongoing military engagements.

12 stories 12 outlets

1 story says getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States and Iran sign a formal ceasefire or a new Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) by March 25, 2027?
No formal agreement reached 61%
Agreement or MoU signed 39%

Deadline Mar 25, 2027

Poll

What is the best way to reduce the risk of a wider Middle East war?

Poll

Should the US take military action if Iran moves closer to a nuclear weapon?

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T The Guardian· 4h

Has Netanyahu lost America? – Stateside with Kai and Carter

Benjamin Netanyahu lands in New York today to speak at the UN general assembly. This visit marks the Israeli prime minister's first time in the city since Mayor Zohran Mamdani vowed to arrest him for war crimes – and it's happening as support for Israel among US voters is taking an unprecedented plunge. Sixty percent o

Analysis

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the UN General Assembly, where he rejected genocide allegations as a "lie" and faced walkouts from delegates and protests outside the venue. This diplomatic friction highlights deepening international polarization and growing isolation regarding the conflict, which continues to impact regional stability and public sentiment. Observers are now watching for further diplomatic fallout and the ongoing military situation in both Gaza and the West Bank.

3 stories 3 outlets ↑ Getting worse

1 story says mixed, 1 story says getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will a formal, multi-phase ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas be implemented by 2027-01-15?
No formal ceasefire 72%
Ceasefire implemented 28%

Deadline Jan 15, 2027

Poll

Who should govern Gaza after the war?

Poll

What should come first in Gaza?